Hydrogen and 'Performance Hybrids' can deliver the same strengths as diesel powertrains, according to Toyota, which will signal the end of oil-burning engines.
Toyota Australia believes diesel will survive only for another decade as emerging technologies like Performance Hybrid and hydrogen mature to replace the technology.
Diesels have been traditionally advantageous in long-distance driving, offering longer driving ranges than petrol, while also providing higher torque figures that have useful applications in towing and off-roading.
However, those same strong points can be replicated in Toyota’s new Performance Hybrid system, as seen on the Tundra pick-up and next year’s LandCruiser Hybrid.
When asked by Drive if Performance Hybrid is the technology to put a nail in diesel’s coffin, Toyota Australia sales and marketing boss Sean Hanley predicted the oil-burning powertrain type is on its last decade of relevance.
“Eventually I think diesel – not in the foreseeable future but in the longer term – I can’t imagine diesel necessarily being a fuel source of the future because the reality is that petrol will do everything it can do, plus some,” Hanley told Australian media.
“I think over time, diesel’s not going to go anytime in the next decade, but beyond that, I think hydrogen will take over diesel eventually – that’s what I think.”
Toyota has been pushing hydrogen as a fuel source – both for electric vehicles (EVs) and internal combustion engines (ICE) – for years, but the technology remains niche due to the lack of refuelling infrastructure.
The brand brought a Mirai fuel-cell electric vehicle (FCEV) to Australia in 2015, and subsequently built a mobile refuelling station for the model to tour the country to showcase hydrogen’s benefits.
In an FCEV, hydrogen is used to create electricity to power a vehicle with the only byproduct being vapour and able to be refuelled as quickly as a petrol or diesel model.
Hyundai and BMW are also expanding their plans in the FCEV space; however, Toyota has since produced a hydrogen combustion engine fitted to a traditionally diesel-powered HiAce van.
Hanley predicted, like petrol-electric hybrid technology that Toyota Australia debuted with the Prius in 2001, that hydrogen will need a ramp-up time before becoming popular.
“People are poo-pooing hydrogen left, right, and centre at the moment because like any new technology, these things take time, infrastructure, sourcing green hydrogen, etc,” Hanley told Drive.
“We’re very much invested in hydrogen, nothing’s changed, but it’s not a short-term investment, so I don’t want people to think that hydrogen is suddenly going to be taking off between now and 2030.
“Particularly that 2035 horizon, I truly believe hydrogen will be our future, and that’s where I think you might see a change of diesel technology at that point.
“Why? Hydrogen is clean, hydrogen infrastructure will be significantly better than what you have today, obviously, so it will be more convenient and it will be affordable.”
While hydrogen could take over from diesel in the long term, a more likely substitute in the near- to medium-term is Performance Hybrid, which uses an electric motor to boost outputs of a petrol engine, while also featuring emissions and fuel usage advantages.
Toyota Australia is touting the 2026 LandCruiser Hybrid's ability to match the diesel version's 3500kg braked towing capacity and off-road prowess as the reason it has greenlit the model for local consumption as it claims to fulfil customer demand in these areas.
The brand is not ready to make predictions on whether the Performance Hybrid powertrain, which will only be available on top-spec variants of the LandCruiser at launch, will outsell or replace 3.3-litre turbo-diesel V6 versions.
However, Toyota could adopt the same strategy it employed with its Efficiency Hybrid models like RAV4, Corolla, and Camry, that saw petrol and hybrid powertrains sold concurrently until the latter hit critical mass, signalling the discontinuation of the former.
Tung Nguyen has been in the automotive journalism industry for over a decade, cutting his teeth at various publications before finding himself at Drive in 2024. With experience in news, feature, review, and advice writing, as well as video presentation skills, Tung is a do-it-all content creator. Tung’s love of cars first started as a child watching Transformers on Saturday mornings, as well as countless hours on PlayStation’s Gran Turismo, meaning his dream car is a Nissan GT-R, with a Liberty Walk widebody kit, of course.
